Killing off the Eliminationist Rhetoric

Andrew Sullivan writes:

So far, the paranoia and conspiracy theories dominate - but they also dominate the atmosphere of the far right. And when a mentally ill young man complains of the "Broken United States Constitution", or regards legal tender as illegitimate “I did not pay with gold and silver!”, some of this nuttiness has penetrated.

No. It means that his rice krispies were talking to him.

You might want to wait a bit before we engage in this deep, meaningful discussion of civility until such time as the accusation of nuttiness or stridency doesn't also carry the implication of manslaughter -- or worse.

In Soccer News...

Not a good week for soccer coaching in the household. First DC United fires their coach (he was pretty ineffective, not much to complain about other than the nagging feeling that he didn't exactly have top-flight talent on board), and now Martin O'Neill out at Aston Villa.
Aston Villa is the reason why I find the premiership watchable -- solid, workmanlike teamwork, they compete hard every week, and their effort has generally been rewarded.
So does Bob Bradley take the reins? So close to the beginning of a season? With the clear indication that the core talent of the team in MF is about to be shipped away for cash?

Journalism

"Unless you're an IT specialist with a top secret clearance working for a defense contractor or in some other high-demand job, chances are your paycheck didn't get a whole lot bigger this year."

Imagine, price being determined by supply and demand. They might have to come up with a whole new branch of science to study this phenomenon.

"Large salary increases tended to be reserved for workers with specialized skills in positions most critical to the employers' operation and growth."

Really. I have not the words. I can't imagine why newspapers are struggling.

Steven Pearlstein's Free Business Consultancy

I read Steven Pearlstein regularly, and really enjoy it at the price of $0.
Would I pay more? Well, what do you think the following advice is worth?

...However, I am a small business owner. While things have picked up slightly, I am sure not hiring anyone. Why? I am uncertain what health-care reform will cost me and what new/ increased taxes are on the way. If there was a more positive, pro-small business environment out there (meaning, in Washington), I would hire more people. I currently employ 12 and could go to 15 or 16, but I won't with the uncertainty. Also, every (and I mean EVERY) small business owner I know is feeling the same and making similar decisions.

Steven Pearlstein writes:

Health care reform cuts lots of different ways for small businesses....Until that sorts itself out, you and other small business owners may face uncertainty -- there is no doubt about that. But you have to understand that there really isn't any good time to do such a reform...It's a one time change, it involves some disruption and uncertainty, but before long the costs and benefits will be known, people and businesses will adjust and the economy will move on.

That said, I remain somewhat skeptical of the notion that you have some great business oppportunity out there that would justify your expanding your staff by 25 percent but you are not going to do it because you might have to pay several thousand dollars more for health insurance in the future. First of all, you can fire people as easily as you can hire them -- that's one of the great "advantages" of the U.S economy. And if the profit margins on the incremental business are so thin that even a few thousand dollars is the difference between making money and losing it, then maybe there is more at issue here than public policy.

Now I don't own a business myself, but it doesn't take a lot of thinking to react really negatively to someone's suggestion that "I think you need to cowboy up and take a risk with your business in the hope that things won't go south". The failure rates for small businesses, even in good times, are somewhat daunting. The focus on health care as the source of uncertainty is also something I find miscast... it's the combination of health care, expected tax increases, and the fact that "every other small business owner I know is feeling the same..." that makes one pause. Steve calls this "group think". I'd call it "canvassing your compatriots, business partners, and customers", and I'm really sorry that everyone's caution interferes with Steve's idea of how to jump start the recovery.
I also deeply appreciate how easy it is for Steve to fire people. I don't know how often he does it, but I generally associate myself with people who I like, trust, and want to keep around, and consider it fairly gut-wrenching to have to let someone go when their performance and attitude are good.

The attempt to browbeat businesses (large and small alike) into "doing more" is a pretty laughable strategy, in my mind. Bottom line is that many/most CEOs can justify their inaction because of the uncertainty, and any attempt by shareholders and Boards to force some sort of forward progress can be answered by a savvy CEO using Mr. Obama's own metric of "company valuation created or saved". "Yes, the stock isn't moving higher, but no, the bottom hasn't dropped out either."
If the Dem's fall strategy is to claim that "we didn't get the stimulus right because the economy was much worse than we thought" and "it's not getting better because everyone's obstructing us", I think they'll get the spanking they deserve.

Mr. Obama's choice between "being a mediocre two-term president or a great one-term president" is missing what looks to be his other other option -- a mediocre one-term president. (Lest you think I'm cheering for this, I'm looking at the loss of a million man-hours of work that you can never get back, and another four years to make it harder to solve the core problem of "everyone's getting to retirement and no one's working to pay for it".)

Ernie Harwell

Proof that sports is such an integral part of late childhood/early adulthood is the outpour of respect at the news of Ernie Harwell's passing.
Whether it was listening on the kitchen radio while doing homework, on the incredibly garish white-and-teal AM radio in my room, or even the scratchy transistor with earpiece that I could sneak into bed to listen to those late-night west coast games, listening to the Tigers was one of those things you could count on through the years.

SQL*Plus Configuration Settings

I run sql*plus in text mode a lot. You can always count on it being there, the functionality is consistent from version to version, and it doesn't require a lot of infrastructure to be running before it can successfully connect.
But there are a few settings I want to have set up on startup. This is reasonably straightforward, just use a script file that contains your preferences, and call it as part of startup.
So here are my oracle settings (stored in a file orasettings.sql):

set termout off
set linesize 140
set pagesize 1000
set long 5000
set timing on
column D22 new_value VAR
select lower(username) || '@' || '&_CONNECT_IDENTIFIER> ' D22 from user_users;
set sqlprompt '&&VAR'
set sqlnumber on

col text format a80 word_wrapped
col st_sectiontext format a80 word_wrapped

set termout on

Now, for how to call it. From the OS command processor (i.e., windows "cmd" command prompt):
sqlplus username@service @orasettings
The other way to "reconnect" is to "modify" the connect command using a script file "conn.sql":

connect &1
@orasettings

and then from a SQL> prompt, you execute
SQL> @conn username@service
enter password:
connected.
username@service>

The last trick, at least on Windows, is to make sure these two files are placed in the location that sqlplus is looking for. That location is stored in the registry under HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\ORACLE\\SQLPATH.
I usually add the root "c:\oracle" as the sqlpath and store the files there, but that's mainly because I have multiple accounts with little in the way of consistency as to paths and locations I can store these things, and I have little interest in figuring out some clever way to remember where to look.
Even this post is meant more for me to be able to grab the settings I use from anywhere in the world than to enlighten the masses. But feel free to use it if you want.

The Health Care Post

President Obama introduced another linchpin of his health care plan today, formalizing an agreement with the Planet Endor to provide a cadre of trained Ewok medical professionals to handle the expected surge in primary care demand.

It's a Dessert Topping and a Floor Wax!

From the AP, that paragon of "accountability journalism":

Kirk, though, has been slow to make a decision, saying several times that an announcement is eminent but failing to make a concrete statement.

Well, of course it takes longer... it has to be both eminent and concrete!

Happy Independence Day

We are a great nation, with a healthy distrust of government.
And we don't hire particularly stellar people for the job.
It's what we do with that surplus of law degrees.
So I'm not surprised that 536 politicians + umpteen thousands of state and local politicians can't -- just can't -- make tough decisions.

We will march onward. Remember, "Situation Hopeless... But Not Serious"...

The New Chrysler

Do I understand this correctly? The two-bit lawyer believes that the most successful outcome is the combination of the UAW's passion for quality with the sustained excellence of Italian Management?

  

I mean, wow.

I'm just... wow.

Wow.

Please Support the 2009 JDRF Walk to Cure Diabetes

On Sunday, June 7, 2009, our family will be walking in the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (JDRF) Walk to Cure Diabetes at the National Conference Center in Lansdowne,VA. Most of you know that our 9-year-old son, Sean, was diagnosed with Type 1 (juvenile) diabetes in October 2001 when he was just 21 months old. Besides closely monitoring his diet and exercise, we must test Sean’s blood sugar levels with finger pricks about ten times a day and throughout the night, and administer insulin every few hours at least. This has been true every day of the last 7.5 years. Unfortunately, there is no magic formula for managing diabetes, since too many variables ALL have an impact on blood sugar at the same time. We've had a long, tough road, and we would love to spare others from this path by finding a cure. Children with Type 1 diabetes are insulin-dependent for life: they will not outgrow Type 1 diabetes and cannot take pills to treat this disease, so therefore the regimen described above must continue day in and day out until a cure is found. In Type 1 diabetes, the pancreas simply stops producing insulin altogether... the diabetes is NOT caused by poor food or exercise choices.
Our family would love your help and support in finding a cure for this disease. We have established a Walk Team called Team Sean, and our goal is to walk together with our friends in support of this cause and to raise at least $2,000. We know we can reach these goals, and would appreciate your help.

Make a tax-deductible contribution in support of Team Sean via cash, check or credit card. Any amount is welcome and appreciated.... $10 - $20 increments really add up! 85% of your donation to JDRF goes directly to diabetes research and education. This is one of the highest percentages for any research-dedicated charity!
If you wish to make an online donation or see Team Sean's progress, please visit Sean's personal JDRF web page at http://walk.jdrf.org/walker.cfm?id=87355919

$50 Billion investment, 80 jobs in Mass.

I feel great to have spent so much to get GM back on its feet, only to have the first real benefit to its reorganization get overrun by Barney Frank.

Perhaps he needs the extra cash to contribute to his friend Angelo Mozilo's Legal Defense Fund.

Proof that there's extra money floating around in America

Someone continues to spend it in the hope that Will Farrell will do something entertaining.

I mean, c'mon. If you've paid a dollar to see him, in theatre or DVD, you're part of the problem. 

I would apologize for the brusque and preemptory nature of this announcement, but I caught a glimpse of this "Land of the Lost" thing. 

Wow. Just... wow.

Dow closes below 6800

When they yearned to erase the nightmare of the Bush years, and return to the halcyon days of Clinton, was this what they meant?

So Microsoft is going Retail

Let's think about the overall retail experience for a minute. Apple Store employees will spend a half hour with you, discussing the relative merits of a $1499 Macbook Pro vs. an $1199 Macbook. Microsoft salesmen will spend 14 hours with you trying to explain the difference between Vista Ultimate Home Media Center and Vista Business Pro Ulitmate Experience, defending the decision to offer no clean upgrade path from XP to Windows7 Not-Quite-Ultimate-But-Really-Leading-Edge so that they can sell you the $320 package vs. the $249 package.

I finally understand the 'genius' thing.

The Myth of Bipartisanship

It is pointless to whine about bipartisanship, as the Washington Post documents here. You will get exactly as much bipartisanship as you have votes. And right now, the one side has the votes.
There is a key, critical point to be made here, but bipartisanship is the wrong word for it.
If this crisis is as bad as the 535 idiot savants in congress would have us believe, then they (we) need to maintain laser-like focus on those things that will set us up best for the future. It's too much to expect these lawyers to treat the situation with the seriousness it deserves. That's not how they roll.
This isn't about the split between tax cuts, pure infrastructure spending, and the other stuff that adds up to $820Billion with a B. The majority gets to make that kind of call. Republicans who vote 'Nay' because there aren't enough tax cuts, or the social spending component is too high, are missing the persuasive argument. You can't win this egregious-spending-line-item by egregious-spending-line-item; you'll whittle the bill down to an $819Billion with a B spending orgy, and look intransigent in the process.
So the countervailing strategy is to ask "do these people even understand what they're voting on"? How do we know that $820B is the answer, rather than $355B? The same GS-15 economists are toiling away in the depths of the Treasury Dept. today that were there last fall. At a high level, does the package make sense? Can you get a sense of the size of the thing? Congress has failed to give me -- and I think most people -- much confidence in that regard.
So, it's up to Mr. Obama. If his idea of bipartisan is leeching a few votes, getting to some magic number of '75', then he'll get exactly what he deserves. If, on the other hand, he doesn't treat this as a political game, and uses his high ground to take out the worst of the fluff, he could be sitting very nicely after the vote.
An adult in charge -- that's the change we need.

This is our Moment

I guess it's a lot easier to dismiss bourgeois concerns about tax rates when you don't bother to pay them.
Wow... just wow.

Mr. McCain makes good Russian Joke!

This week, Mr. McCain called Nancy Pelosi an "inspiration to millions of Americans."

He's correct, in the sense that we all have this hope that The Picture of Dorian Grey was a documentary.

But to think of her as two heartbeats away is not terribly inspirational. Although terrible does come into play.

A Three-Month Sprint

99 days to the election, and the electorate is none the wiser.
With a month of Olympics interrupting any flow, I must admit I find it kind of appalling that we'll be selecting the "leader of the free world" with about 60 days' worth of attention from the vast sea of undecided.
I guess we give it the attention it deserves.
I do have some advice for Mr. McCain. His campaign so far has been very reactive; Mr. Obama makes a speech, and then the McCain campaign complains about it (or "points out the flaws" if you're already a true believer). I don't think you can get elected if you can't define what you're for rather than just what you're against.
So here are my two themes for the race to the finish. First, I believe that Mr. Obama will select a lawyer as his running mate (90% chance). If so, I will begin referring to the team as "the two laywers" (bonus points for two Hahvahd Lawyers!!). Every reference to a laywer turned community activist turned politician serves to remind the undecided that these guys are not like "us". They are the guys you hated in school -- slick, smarmy, smug, and not nearly as smart as they think they are.
The rest of the narrative writes itself -- "The two lawyers, trained to argue whichever side is paying them -- they are advocates, not warriors. There's no idea or principle that they're willing to die for. Take national security -- the surge was an appropriate response to the situation. But they scored points arguing the other side. And now they're trapped with a position on withdrawal that isn't supported by the facts on the ground. They have no ability to change their minds based on the advice of military leadership. They will plod along, pursuing an incorrect, premature withdrawal. They have no definition of success except withdrawal. I believe we can succeed in leaving Iraq a better place -- a messy, dangerous, but hopeful burgeoning democracy in the Middle East. They can't -- I will."
"On the economy, energy prices are the fundamental factor that is causing so much pain for so many people. The two lawyers -- remember, the ones that sharks won't eat out of professional courtesy -- won their positions by promising to go after "speculators" and pursuing "alternative energy solutions". That's the lawyer's view of economics -- there must be somebody doing something wrong, rather than getting their hands dirty with basic laws of supply and demand. No! We need to invest in alternative energy solutions, but it will take time. In the shorter term, we must do the two things that can significantly affect supply and demand for oil. First, drill in America. Second, invest in increasing our nuclear energy generation. The two lawyers are smart guys -- maybe they even recognize that this is true -- but they can't get that idea through their supporters. What will it take? $8 per gallon gas? Solar cars? Everyone on buses or bicycles? When it comes to addressing this problem, they can't -- I will."
"They can't -- I will."
"They can't -- I will."
"They can't -- I will."
On earmarks -- "They can't -- I will."
On education -- "They can't -- I will."
On Iran -- "They can't -- I will."
On keeping their hands out of your pockets -- "They can't -- I will."
On spending your money wisely -- "They can't -- I will."
On working together, republicans and democrats, to solve some of the problems of the day -- "They can't -- I will. He hasn't, not even a little bit, not once in his three-year history in the Senate -- I have, continually, for twenty years. I'll get things done."

This spring's weather...

has been something to behold.